Rain rain go away

MRTLog 2: Findings and Comparisons of Travel Time between 2007 and 2012

Aim

This empirical study is a follow-up from the previous one conducted in 2007 after my trip to Japan.

https://sites.google.com/site/alwinwoo/mrtlogs

Inspired by the recent challenges that the transportation system exhibited (in particularly the trains), instead of relying on gut feel, I wanted to find out the following:

• If the trains actually (empirically) ran slower 
• If they did, by how much (empirically)
• Whether if the drop in performance was station-specific

Methodology

Having changed jobs and with a duty to ferry my school-going kids, this new study recorded the timings of trains leaving Ang Mo Kio in the morning between 8.30 to 8.45am in the direction of Outram Park. The return journey was taken on trains between 6.15 to 6.30pm.

Using a stopwatch application for my Nokia E7, timings were taken when the train doors opened at each station. All timings were to the nearest second.

Results

Table 1: Log of Travel Times in 2007 from Ang Mo Kio to City Hall

Table 2: Log of Travel Times in 2012 from Ang Mo Kio to Outram Park

Following the same methodology in 2007 (Table 1), 2 weeks' worth of data was collected between 13 and 24 August on travel times between Ang Mo Kio and Outram Park (Table 2).

The first instance of a date indicates the times taken to travel between two stations on the southbound trip (towards office); the second represents the times taken on the northbound trip (home).

Detection of Outliers

Not done during the 2007 study is a check to determine if there were any outliers (in this study, outliers are defined as timing values that are 140% or more than the nearest value). This was applied to both the maximum and minimum timings recorded in both periods.

2 maxima outliers highlighted in yellow (one each in 2007 and 2012) were detected and thus omitted from the results. The maximum times were then adjusted to 141 and 148 (from 224 and 212) respectively.

There were no minima outliers.

Determining Maximum, Minimum and Standard Deviation of Travel Times

With adjustments to the 2 maxima outliers, the following four graphs (1 to 4) were plotted to determine and  compare the maximum, minimum and standard deviation of the travel times taken in 2007 and 2012.

Graph 1: Minimum, Maximum and Standard Deviation of Travel Times in 2007

Graph 2: Minimum, Maximum and Standard Deviation of Travel Times in 2012 
 

Graph 3: Cumulative Travel Times (Min, Average, Max) in 2007, 2012
with publicly available SMRT timings

Graph 4: Range of Travel Times between AMK and City Hall Stations
based on 2007 baseline (minimum) and 2012 ceiling (maximum)

Conclusion

Based on the following graphs, some of the more significant (in my opinion) observations are highlighted below:

• This study empirically shows that travel times have increased; this is accompanied by greater variance in travel times, particularly at the AMK and Bishan stations

• Travel times from AMK to Bishan can potentially increase by 200% when compared to 2007's fastest time (from 120 to 360 seconds)

• The variance of travel times between Braddell~Toa Payoh and Dhoby Ghaut~City Hall actually decreased from 2007 to 2012

• The published travel times from SMRT reflected the average travel time in 2007 and are slightly higher than the fastest (most optimistic) travel time in 2012

• The cumulative travel time lines (fastest and average times for 2007 and 2012) from AMK to City Hall are almost parallel

• The time difference between the fastest travel times in 2007 and 2012 was less than 2 mins

• The difference between the estimated travel time and slowest travel times in 2012 are quite significant (180 vs 360, 780 vs 1346, 1080 vs 1876)

•  The time difference between estimated and average travel time in 2012 is about 2 mins

Wrap-Up

It is interesting to note that whilst the average travel time has increased by approximately 2 minutes, there is a greater perception that trains are running more slowly.

This begets another interesting question that I intend to follow up to find out more, which is:

"If travel time has only changed by 2 minutes, why then does the train trip take so much longer?"

my two little helpers

going down the rabbit hole

Exercise completed

Over these last two weeks, I've recorded down the time taken for the train trips that I make from Ang Mo Kio to my office in Outram.

I will be collating, comparing the data and write down my findings over the next few days.

I hope the findings will be interesting.

MRT Logs Round 2

By coincidence, I came across a very old post of mine written on the increasingly crowded trains, which led me to a project that I conducted in 2007.

https://sites.google.com/site/alwinwoo/mrtlogs

I am now attempting to replicate the study in 2012 to determine if trains are travelling slower now; and if so, by how much and where the major choke points potentially are along the NS line.

If you're interested in knowing the result, stay tuned over the next few days as the data comes in!

Ecological monster

National Duty?

If you haven't watched the Mentos video "National Night", perhaps it's a good time to do so before you read this post...

Now that you have, what are your thoughts?

A "naughty" video perhaps, but it does touch on something that can be sensitive to Singaporeans in many ways.

Inevitably, the opportunity costs of bringing up these little critters in our country will be raised.

Intertwined closely with the Government's desire that local residents copulate and multiple (not replace themselves) is the import of foreigners (usually known as "foreign talent") tp address the "shortfall" (actual, perceived or otherwise) that the local economy needs in order to remain "competitive".

So, are you ready to do your National Service tonight?

How to raise children well

Some thoughts gleaned and thought about during a MindChamp briefing today:

* Raising children who are mentally tough
* Setting expectations of their own
* Avoid formation of negative thoughts
* Teach them how to handle adversity of their lives
* Children are already bogged down with school work, why give them more to demoralise them
* desirable mindset: self confidence, communication skills, interpersonal social skills, learning flexibility (learn-unlearn-relearn), relationship to learning
* how a child learns and reacts to the world is dependent on his/her relation to their parents and how they view the world themselves
* lessons should be understood, stored, recalled and applied
* cannot expect changes if same method is used all the time
* information needs to be curated for the child, need to relate the purpose
* english: read, write, listen, speak

Kudos to my uncle

My uncle is dying.

But not by his own hand or accord.

Someone made a mistake and my family is considering legal options against the transgressor.

Though I didn't know him very well or was very close to him, I will remember him as a man who is fiercely independent, kind and filial.

Being a portly figure, I will always remember my mom telling me how he and his late wife (also substantially large) climbed onto a camel for a photo shot and made it go "oof"!

Through him, I realise how important family members are to support us in times of trial and tribulations. If he had been a sole child of my grandma, it is likely that he would just be considered as a statistical figure in a report.

But his brothers and sisters are rallying around him. So even though he's now lying in the ICU fighting for his life, he's not alone.

I can't do anything but pray for his suffering to end; But for the other family members, it's just starting.