Archive for August 2011
When TT might not win

When TT might not win

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I thought it might be interesting to put some of my day-job skills in practice in the upcoming contest.

Underlying Assumptions:
1. Pro-ruling (P1) and pro-opp (P2) support levels remain the same at 60-40 respectively.
2. Dominant support of pro-ruling is for TT, subordinate is for TCB, none for TKL or TJS.
3. Dominant support of pro-opp is either with TKL or TJS, none for TT or TCB.
4. Readers will understand why the chosen percentages were assumed.

Scenario 1: TT 100% P1, TKL/TJS 100% P2
TT wins 60% with another strong mandate.

Scenario 2A: TT 80% P1, TCB 20% P2, TKL, TJS gets 80%, 20% P2
TT wins 48% with TJS/TKL following by 32%.

Scenario 2B: TT 60% P1, TCB 40% P2, TKL, TJS gets 80%, 20% P2
TT wins 36% with TJS/TKL following by 32%. A narrower margin, but a win nonetheless.

Scenario 3: TT 60% P1, TCB 40% P1 30% P2, TKL or TJS gets 50% P2
Probably the most optimistic (and realistic) scenario that can paint for TCB. It actually produces a draw with TT at 36%.

If this actually happens, it would have a lot of things to say about managing public perception, plight of the ruling party's reputation and nature of the voters who are supposedly anti-establishment.

Or it could also be a red herring: http://mrwangsaysso.blogspot.com/2011/05/presidential-elections.html

So, who's going to take the prime spot next week? Only time will tell :)

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